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Chagos Handover Could Redraw India-China Power Dynamics in Indian Ocean

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Our Bureau

Mauritius

In a move that may reshape the strategic landscape of the Indian Ocean, the United Kingdom has agreed in principle to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius. This historic decision, widely hailed as the completion of Mauritius’s decolonisation, carries far-reaching geopolitical implications—especially for India and China, two Asian giants vying for influence in the region.

The Chagos Archipelago, a cluster of over 60 islands, has been under British control since the 1960s. Its largest island, Diego Garcia, was leased to the United States and transformed into a major military base, making it a linchpin of Western security interests in the Indian Ocean. For decades, Mauritius’s claim to Chagos has been supported by international courts and the United Nations, with India consistently backing its case.

For India, the transfer of Chagos to a friendly Mauritius unlocks new strategic opportunities. India and Mauritius share deep diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties, with nearly 70% of Mauritians tracing their roots to India. New Delhi is already a top trading partner and investor, and Indian officials traditionally hold key security roles in the Mauritian government. India has also funded major infrastructure projects, including a new airstrip on Agalega Island, enhancing its ability to monitor vital maritime routes.

China, however, has been expanding its footprint in Mauritius and the broader Indian Ocean through its Belt and Road Initiative, infrastructure investments, and a landmark free trade agreement with Mauritius. This growing presence has heightened Indian concerns over Beijing’s ambitions in the region.

The Chagos handover could give India greater leverage to counter China’s influence, providing potential access to strategic outposts and boosting its maritime security role. However, the extent of India’s involvement will depend on the terms set by Mauritius, especially given the continued US military presence in Diego Garcia.

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