Exit polls give a big boost to the BJP by predicting that the party will win in the important states of Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Congress rejects the exit polls. Which party may surprise the pollsters on Sunday?
Our Bureau
Jaipur/Hyderabad/New Delhi
The official results of the five state assemblies would be out only on Sunday, December 3. But exit polls on Thursday created a lot of buzz in the political circles. The polls gave varied predictions, giving advantage to BJP in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, a clear edge to Congress in Chhattisgarh and Telangana and that the ruling MNF was ahead in power sweepstakes in Mizoram.
Five states went to the polls this month with counting slated for December 3. The polling in five states that are in northern, eastern and southern parts of the country, came months before the next Lok Sabha polls. Counting in four other states that went to the polls this month will also take place on December 3. The polls, held months before the Lok Sabha polls, are crucial for BJP and Congress for various reasons.
While the exit polls were almost unanimous in giving an edge to Congress in Telangana, where polling concluded on Thursday, a few predicted a close call in Rajasthan with Congress too in the lead and an exit poll gave a little edge to the party in Madhya Pradesh too. A poll predicted that Zoram People’s Movement will win decisively in Mizoram.
The outcome of exit polls was released after the conclusion of polls in Telangana. If Congress is able to retain Rajasthan along with Chhattisgarh and oust the ruling BRS from Telangana, it will be a major morale-booster for the party.
As most exit polls predicted BJP returning to power in Madhya Pradesh and facing neck-to-neck competition with Congress in Rajasthan, leaders of both parties reacted to the projections claiming their parties are set to form governments in respective states.
Congress is projected to win in Chhattisgarh by the pollsters, but BJP has a clear advantage in Madhya Pradesh, most exit polls said on Thursday as they predicted Congress falling short in its poll effort in the state where it was expecting to gain from “anti-incumbency” against the government.
After the exit-poll predictions for Madhya Pradesh gave a clear edge to the incumbent BJP, Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Thursday thanked the women voters of the state, saying “Kaante ki takkar’, ‘Kaante ki takkar’. ‘Laadli behna ne saare kaante nikaal diye (What neck-to-neck fight? The daughters and sisters seems to have set us on the road to victory”.
However, Congress dismissed the exit polls and said that the public is set to put a stamp on the Congress government in MP. Madhya Pradesh Congress president Kamal Nath appealed to the party workers not to get affected by most exit polls predicting a BJP win.
Stating that a country is run by vision, not by television, Kamal Nath said, “Many exit polls have shown Congress party forming the government while some exit polls are saying otherwise. Don’t let all this distract you.”
Meanwhile, Congress leader Digvijaya Singh said that people are fed up with Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Congress is set to gain more than 130 seats in a 230-member Assembly.
Exit polls predicted that Congress is poised to form government in Telangana and that the ruling Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) would fall short of the majority after its 10-year rule in India’s youngest state. The polling for the 119-member Telangana assembly was held on Thursday.
Telangana recorded a voter turnout of 70.28 per cent.
After the exit poll projection showed Congress leading the race to form government in Telangana, state Congress president Revanth Reddy asserted that the grand old party is going to get a landslide victory this time, and today’s exit polls showed the same thing.
“Congress is going to get landslide victory this time and the same thing is reflected in the exit polls. We are going to get over 80 seats…There is a screening committee, a selection committee and then the CWC has to take a call (for CM). In Congress, there is a process for everything. Being the PCC president, I will have to obey every order from the high command,” Reddy told ANI on Thursday.
The exit polls said that two regional players in Mizoram – MNF and ZPM – are in the race to form government in Mizoram with most predictions stating that the ruling party led by Chief Minister Zoramthanga has an advantage in the northeastern state while there is also a possibility of a hung assembly.
Mizoram went to the polls on November 7 for its 40-member assembly. The ruling Mizo National Front (MNF) faced a challenge from the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM), Congress and BJP.
In Madhya Pradesh, most exit polls said that BJP has a clear advantage as they predicted Congress falling short in its poll effort in the state where it was expecting to gain from “anti-incumbency” against the government.
Most exit polls predicted that the BJP, which has ruled the state for almost 18 of the past 20 years, is set for another term in office with a huge majority. An exit poll gave advantage to the Congress and another predicted that the two parties were on an equal footing.
In Rajasthan, exit polls reinforced the perception of a hard contest with differences in their prediction of the winner in the crucial Hindi heartland state that has a nearly three-decade tradition of not repeating an incumbent government.
The exit poll predictions showed that “others” including smaller parties and independents could play a crucial role in the formation of the government when the results are announced on December 3. Rajasthan went to the polls on 199 of 200 assembly seats on November 25.
The Congress government in the state led by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot unleashed a series of populist schemes closer to the assembly election to ward off the challenge from the BJP.
According to India Today-Axis My India poll, Congress is poised to get 86-106 seats in Rajasthan with 42 per cent votes and BJP 80-100 seats with 41 per cent vote support. Others are poised to seven per cent votes and 9-18 seats.
India TV-CNX poll predicted 94-104 seats for Congress with 43 per cent votes and 80-90 seats for BJP with 42 per cent vote share. It said ‘others’ are expected to get 15 per cent votes and 14-18 seats.
Times Now-ETG poll gave 56-72 seats to Congress with 38.98 per cent vote share, 108-128 to BJP with 41.88 per cent votes and others expected to get 13-21 seats with a sizeable 19.14 per cent vote share.’
The Jan Ki Baat poll gave 100-122 seats to BJP with vote share of 44 per cent, 62-85 seats to Congress with a vote share of 41 per cent and predicted that others will get 15 per cent votes and 14-15 seats.
The P-Marq poll said BJP will win 105-125 seats in Rajasthan with 42.2 per cent vote share and Congress 69-81 seats with 39.7 per cent votes. It said others are poised to get 5-15 seats with 18.1 per cent vote, it said.
In Chhattisgarh, exit polls gave Congress a clear edge, showing that the ruling party in the state is poised to return to power with the BJP also expected to put up a good contest unlike in the 2018 polls.
While three polls predicted a clear victory of Congress in the state, others said that the party was in the winning range. The Congress fought the election with Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel at the helm.
According to ABP C-Voter predictions, Congress is poised to win 41-53 seats in the state which has a 90-member assembly. The exit poll said BJP is poised to get 36-48 seats and others 0-4 seats.
The India Today-Axis My India poll predicted Congress getting 40-50 seats, BJP 36-46 seats and others getting 1-5 seats.
The Republic TV exit poll gave Congress 44-52 seats, BJP 34-42 seats and 0-2 polls for others.
India TV-CNX poll predicted 46- 56 seats for Congress, 30-40 seats for BJP and 3-5 for others. The numbers for Congress and BJP in the Jan Ki Baat exit poll were 42-53 and 34-45 respectively and it predicted 0-3 seats for others.
The poll done by Today’s Chanakya predicted that Congress will get 57-66 seats in Chhattisgarh with BJP getting 33-42 seats with 0-3 seats going to the others.
With such varied predictions, it can still be anyone’s election. Watch this space till December 3.
