The interim government now faces the challenge of redefining this relationship amidst shifting public sentiments in Bangladesh, which increasingly favor a more balanced approach in foreign relations. Despite strong historical ties, these changing perceptions necessitate careful navigation to maintain strategic cooperation with India
Madhu Shree Dwivedi
The ousting of Sheikh Hasina from power on August 5, 2024, has marked a significant turning point in Bangladesh’s political landscape.
After 15 years of leadership, her resignation has led to the establishment of an interim government and the situation is evolving. This transition, being driven by domestic turmoil and also economic challenges, has ushered in a new era for Bangladesh’s foreign policy. This article delves into the challenges facing the interim government in navigating Bangladesh’s foreign relations, focusing on its key objectives: redefining ties with India, addressing economic instability, and managing geopolitical dynamics in the region.
Redefining Ties with India
Sheikh Hasina’s tenure was marked by a strong bilateral relationship with India, which played a pivotal role in shaping Bangladesh’s foreign policy. India was Hasina’s “biggest ally,” supporting Bangladesh’s economic growth and stability while assisting in counterinsurgency operations. This partnership facilitated significant infrastructural developments, trade enhancements, and energy cooperation, contributing to the economic prosperity of Bangladesh. Additionally, India’s support in security matters, including sharing intelligence and training security forces, helped in maintaining regional stability and combating insurgent activities, particularly in the northeastern regions bordering India.
With the new interim government in place, there is an opportunity to reassess this partnership, considering both the changing geopolitical landscape and the evolving aspirations of the Bangladeshi people. The interim government may seek to diversify its foreign relations, ensuring a more balanced approach that reflects the growing sentiment among Bangladeshis for enhanced engagement with other global powers. This reassessment could involve exploring new avenues for economic cooperation, expanding trade ties, and seeking collaborative efforts in technology and innovation with India.
Strategic Challenges in Bangladesh-India Relations
Bangladesh and India share a long and complex history, with a border spanning nearly 4,096 kilometers, about half of which lies adjacent to India’s northeastern region—a zone historically impacted by insurgency. Sheikh Hasina’s cooperation with India played a pivotal role in stabilizing this area, earning substantial goodwill from India through her government’s efforts to curb insurgency activities.
Nevertheless, the interim government now faces the challenge of redefining this relationship amidst shifting public sentiments in Bangladesh, which increasingly favor a more balanced approach in foreign relations. Despite strong historical ties, these changing perceptions necessitate careful navigation to maintain strategic cooperation with India.
In addition to this, the interim government must address the complex issue of minority rights, as nearly 10% of Bangladesh’s population comprises minorities. The country’s history of targeting minorities during political instability raises concerns that radical elements within the Bangladesh Army and opposition parties could exploit these tensions, potentially affecting bilateral relations with India. Such developments would inevitably compel India, as Bangladesh’s closest ally, to respond, thereby potentially complicating the bilateral relationship.
Alongside these challenges is Bangladesh’s economic turmoil, exacerbated by the closure of its garment industry, the country’s primary income source, which has led to widespread unemployment and economic instability—a key factor in the political unrest that precipitated Hasina’s ouster. To address these economic challenges, the interim government must undertake reforms to attract foreign investment and seek international assistance, having already initiated dialogues with international financial institutions and potential investors to diversify the economy and reduce reliance on the garment sector.
At the same time, political instability remains a pressing concern, fueled by student-led protests and public discontent reminiscent of the 1990 movements that led to significant political change, emphasizing the power of public mobilization in Bangladesh. There have been calls for credible investigations into alleged state-sponsored killings during recent protests, underscoring the government’s commitment to transparency and accountability. Effective management of public protests and political stability is crucial for the interim government to gain legitimacy and maintain control.
Furthermore, Bangladesh’s geopolitical landscape is shaped by its proximity to major regional players, including India and China. The interim government must skillfully navigate these dynamics to preserve strategic relevance and safeguard national interests. While Sheikh Hasina maintained close ties with India, she also cultivated relationships with China. The interim government will too need to do this delicate balancing act, leveraging relationships with both India and China to optimize economic and strategic benefits. It is imperative for the interim government to sustain these partnerships while ensuring transparency and accountability especially in project implementation.
As Bangladesh approaches its upcoming elections, the interim government will have to manage the geopolitical implications of these elections, which are likely to be highly contested and will likely see the opposition gaining momentum and increasing chances of electoral success. This potential shift in power dynamics could impact Bangladesh’s foreign policy trajectory, particularly concerning its relations with India and China. Therefore, ensuring a fair and transparent electoral process is essential for upholding democratic values and maintaining international credibility.
Conclusion
The interim government in Bangladesh faces significant challenges in navigating the country’s foreign policy landscape. Redefining ties with India, addressing economic instability, and managing geopolitical dynamics are critical priorities for the new administration.
While Sheikh Hasina’s tenure marked a period of stability and growth, the interim government must adapt to evolving domestic and international contexts. Balancing relations with major powers, addressing public discontent, and ensuring political stability will be crucial in shaping Bangladesh’s future foreign policy direction. Moreover, restoring democracy and conducting free and fair elections are vital steps toward political legitimacy. Should the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) come into power, particularly given the student protests against Sheikh Hasina, the trajectory of relations with India remains to be seen though the BNP has historically advocated good relations with regional neighbors.
Ultimately, the interim government’s ability to manage these challenges and opportunities will determine Bangladesh’s trajectory in the coming months and years, influencing its role in the regional and global arenas. Ensuring a smooth transition and engaging with all political actors will be key to fostering national unity and international credibility.
Madhushree Dwivedi is a Research Intern at Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi. Views expressed are personal.
This article first appeared in the Viewpoint section of the website (www.icwa.in) of Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi, on August 6, 2024
